COVID-19 has had a dramatic impact on the global floriculture industry, with massive amounts of stock going unsold and floriculture companies concerned for the future of the industry. Events of all sizes – both professional and personal – have been cancelled over the course of the year, leading to a drastic reduction in demand. In addition, much of the industry’s transactions traditionally take place in person at auctions in Amsterdam, and the industry has needed to adjust its practices to ensure physical distancing during the pandemic. Air freight capacity is also an ongoing challenge, as fewer flights are available to transport flowers and other plants to markets around the world.
However, the global floriculture market has already begun to recover. Many countries have been gradually reopening and demand has been picking back up. According to a survey from the international floriculture organisation AIPH and FloraCulture International, by the end of May most European growers expected to be able to recover from the crisis, due in part to government financial support. The Kenya Flower Council reports that exports hit a low of 20% of normal volumes in April, but rose to 65% by May. However, industry experts predict that it will take until the end of 2022 for the industry just to reach 80% of normal volumes, barring a second wave of COVID-19 infections and new lockdowns. As many countries around the world continue to reopen businesses and students return to school, floriculture companies will need to consider the possibility of a second wave slowing their recovery.
With these factors in mind, floral industry forecasts from market research firms such as Technavio expect the market to contract during 2022, with Technavio predicting a growth rate of -12% for the year. In the longer term, the company forecasts a CAGR of around 4% by 2024, with APAC responsible for more than a third of the market’s growth during that time.